My main source of information on the war is the Institute for the Study of War website, which provides detailed daily reports based on satellite evidence of who is doing what where, official statements from both sides, and posts by Russian milbloggers. ISW is openly on the Ukrainian side, reports statements by sources in the Ukrainian military straight, statements from the Russian side more skeptically. For example:
The Ukrainian General Staff reported on September 11 that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian radar station near Berezki, Bryansk Oblast
The Russian MoD also claimed on September 11 that Russian forces conducted another Kh-39 strike against the deployment point of a different Ukrainian unit in an unspecified part of Sumy Oblast. (Both quotes from Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 11, 2026)
ISW is probably honest but it is not unbiased. I also have posts by a Russian commenter on a web forum I am active on to give me a picture of how things look from the other side. I do not think anything he says directly contradicts the ISW account but he has sometimes pointed out significant facts that account does not include.
Seen on ISW the significant facts about the war are:
The Russian offensive has stalled. Monthly territorial gains are much smaller than a year ago, sometimes negative.
Russian casualty rates are higher than current recruitment.
Russia does not have sufficient defensive resources to protect all of its enormous area from drone attacks. Ukraine now has long range drones capable of reaching most of Russia, is using them to do serious damage to the Russian economy, in particular the petroleum industry.
The Russian account of the war differs, especially on the first point. Putin and the Russian military claim that the offensive is still going well, with substantial territorial gains. This is not merely a disagreement on the overall picture but on the details. The Russian military claims to have taken territory, in multiple places, that ISW reports is still controlled by Ukraine. For example:
The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade reported on September 11 that Russian forces recently intensified offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast and have already claimed the seizures of several settlements that Ukrainian forces currently control, possibly as part of a Russian cognitive warfare effort that aims to portray Russian forces as advancing ahead of the September 18-20 State Duma elections. (Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 11, 2026)
Russian sources continue to claim that Russian forces have encircled roughly 2,000 Ukrainian forces northeast of Kharkiv City.[50] ISW has not observed any evidence to substantiate these claims since Russian sources first made claims about encircling these Ukrainian forces on September 3. (Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 13, 2026)
Russian sources concede that Ukrainian drones are doing significant damage but not that it is causing major problems. They imply that the military is getting and can continue to get sufficient recruits without involuntary reserve call ups.
There are three different ways of interpreting the situation with different implications for the future of the war.
ISW is Right, Putin is Mistaken
Putin can read ISW but he may not believe it, may interpret its account as Ukrainian propaganda, prefer to believe the reports of his military instead, both because it is his and because he prefers the story they are telling. Russian commanders whose part of the offensive has stalled may believe that admitting it will make them look bad with unfortunate consequences for their careers, perhaps their lives. It might be more prudent to exaggerate their successes, minimize their failures, claim that their part of the war is going well, hope that if it eventually becomes obvious that the war is going badly someone else will be blamed.
If this is what is happening Putin will continue to reject any proposals to end the war on terms short of Ukrainian surrender. If the offensive continues to go badly, if Ukraine starts gaining land instead of losing it, that will eventually become obvious and Russia, Putin or a replacement, will try for peace, at least a cease fire along present lines. Zelensky has appeared open to such a proposal in the past, may not be if it looks as though Ukraine is winning, may insist on Russia withdrawing to what they and their Ukrainian allies held at the start of the invasion, may even try to recover all of the Donbas and Crimea. It could be a long war, with Russia now having the advantage of the defensive. How much Zelinsky (or his replacement) insists on how strongly may be limited by the willingness of the NATO states to continue to support him.
ISW is Right, Putin is Lying
If the war is going badly and Putin knows it is he has at least two reasons to pretend it isn’t. One is domestic politics, especially with the Duma elections coming up. Another is to persuade Ukraine’s supporters that Ukraine is losing, get them to pressure Ukraine to accept unfavorable terms with the threat of withdrawing their support.
If this is what is happening, Putin might, after the Duma elections, agree to a cease fire, perhaps a peace treaty, leaving Russia with the territory they presently control. Zelensky might or might not agree. Alternatively, Putin might try to reverse the situation by calling up reserves, introducing conscription, in other ways increasing the resources devoted to the war.
Putin is Right, ISW is Mistaken or Lying
Perhaps ISW is believing over-optimistic claims from the Ukrainian military, not my guess, given that they also use satellite data, but possible. Perhaps they are deliberately biasing their account in order to encourage NATO states to continue supporting Ukraine. In either case the war probably continues until the Ukrainian army breaks or Ukraine agrees to Putin’s terms. Less likely possibilities are NATO militaries joining on the Ukrainian side or Russia abandoning the offensive due to domestic unhappiness at its cost.
All of these assume that current trends, whether what ISW reports or what Putin claims, continue. It is possible that they will not. The war has seen substantial changes in military technology; there may be more, to the benefit of one side or the other.
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“People never lie so much as after a hunt, during a war or before an election.”
- Otto von Bismarck
Beside ISW, AP News, LiveUAMap, DeepState.live etc. have been collecting control of territory maps. We also have reporting from China and Russia easily accessible to understand different perspective. We also have a lot of news from India which is sympathetic to Russia but also west aligned.
I tried to give maps from 09/2024 and 09/20206 and this is what AI has to say.
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Between September 2024 and September 2026, the overall percentage of Ukraine's total territory under Russian control remained stable at approximately 19% to 20%.
While Russian forces made localized tactical advances—particularly in parts of the eastern Donbas sector during this two-year window—these localized gains represented a relatively small fraction of the total area. In terms of net territorial change over that specific two-year interval, Russia gained roughly 0.3% to 0.4% of Ukraine's total land area (translating to roughly 700 to 900 square miles of net gain over the year leading up to late 2026).
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Depending on what is the source of maps, the numbers change from 17% to 20% but overall the trend appears to be the same that Russian advances have essentially stalled over last 2 years and there is no meaningful gains for Russia.
This is not necessarily a bad thing for Russia as we might think Russia does not want to advance. However, there are many proxy variables that tell us otherwise.
We have satellite images that show that night time lights in Crimea have gone down by around 80%. Some of this attributed to Ukraine targeting their power-grid and some of it to real fuel shortages in Russia.
From India we know for certain that India is now importing Russian crude, refining it and selling it back to Russia. Russia never had any need to buy oil from India in past. President Trump has made a public appeal to Ukraine to not attack Russian refineries.
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Everything basically points to the fact that Russian advances have stalled and also Russia has significant domestic problems such as oil shortages. That Ukraine has indeed crippled its energy infrastructure in meaningful way.