Vaccination If the question is whether I should get vaccinated in order to protect myself, the main issue is effectiveness against hospitalization or death. If the issue is whether I should get vaccinated to protect other people, the main issue is by how much getting vaccinated reduces the chance I will get infected and infect others.
Before I got the original two-shot series, I asked quite a number of med professionals if they’d experienced any ill effects. At that time, none had. Today very many people cite studies and real evidence that at very least, suggest it’s dangerous.
I did it because I’m older, live alone and if hospitalized, no one would tend my animals. Although I’ve experienced no negative side effects, I did get covid and its duration was just five days.
If I had it to do over I’d do the same, but I’ll recommend vaccination to no one. It’s a risk-driven, personal decision. If mandated I will never comply.
All-cause mortality was higher in the vaccine group in the Pfizer randomized controlled trial. It's odd to discuss vaccination without risks of vaccination compared to risks of COVID.
The second round of covid is only getting as much mileage as it has because there are people who are still hermits from the first round. I know a family who still wipes down their groceries. I view it as pure OCD. There are lots of germs in the world; covid is not the worst.
The Talmud talks about a disease that was similar to a cold, except that many people who got it died. I would assume that, like covid, it mutated until it was unusual for it to kill people.
I agree with this post overall but would add that there was one subgroup of the Swedish population that had a FAR greater excess mortality compared to other countries and that was the very elderly. A German statistician laid this out in a very rigorous analysis but that was probably almost 2 years ago. Personally, I had a 60-year-old friend who died in a country that didn't have vaccines yet when he got infected. He had no known health problems whatsoever. Not getting vaccinated when we're old and/or have known risk factors is simply stupid. And so is the failure to recognize that the overwhelming majority of doctors, public health officers, and politicians have had only an evolving understanding of what needed to be done to save lives. Replacing such recognition with fringe theories has already cost many lives unnecessarily.
I was slightly disappointed by this piece as it comes across as if you haven’t familiarised yourself with the sceptical sides of the argument much.
1. If vaccines do protect you against serious illness, what’s the argument for getting vaccinated to protect others (as they could get vaccinated if they wish)? I’ve heard it argued that some of the most vulnerable are least able to benefit from vaccines, so it is for their sake. That of course assumes that the vaccines prevent transmission. As is widely recognised now, they are seriously lacking in this regard. But was this ever a serious argument? I would say that it is not; as is known by the medical profession but not widely advertised, vaccines for diseases that spread quickly and hence mutate quickly have unimpressive efficacy. I didn’t know this before but since I educated myself have stopped taking the regular flu vaccine. Even if you managed to produce a vaccine tailored for a variant, by the time you have got the vaccine available and rolled it out a new variant is doing the rounds. They only really work for diseases that are relatively stable and don’t mutate easily. Diseases that are both stable and dangerous don’t get very far. Vaccines are valuable for such diseases, but it’s about protecting the individual, not about the community.
2. The herd immunity concept isn’t helpful. As a sceptic about lockdowns right from the start I was also guilty of focusing on the Great Barrington Declaration idea that we should protect the vulnerable whilst herd immunity developed naturally in the rest of the population. Viruses can travel significant distances in the air and will work through the population until most people have been exposed. The idea that it’s spread person to person in close proximity, and that you are safe as long as you keep 2m away from everybody else is a fantasy. Whatever your views on the theory, the real life example of Sweden outperforming ALL the other countries in the EU on mortality proves the point. Some observers have drawn the conclusion that none of the countries that locked down did so hard enough, but that’s not a realistic policy proposal in free and democratic countries. It would also only postpone the inevitable, noting also that once you open up, the virus will have evolved and you will have a population with weakened immune systems.
3. Mortality rates for Covid just aren’t that high. The vast majority of deaths were in very elderly individuals with co-morbidities. There is no question whatsoever that the lockdown and vaccine drives where a huge net negative for society (not to mention individuals who suffered side effects from the vaccine, or were damaged by lockdowns). I’d like to think that if I was 85 years old and was given the choice between what we did and dying 2 years earlier than I otherwise would, I would do the honourable thing. Obviously, that's easier said than done if immersed in media generated panic.
4. The efficacy of the vaccines, even in protecting the elderly, is disputed. A number of statistical tricks/effects were used to inflate efficacy (not necessarily deliberately).
True. Risks of vaccination are clear, but those of us who’ve so far experienced no ill effects stand around with fingers crossed. One guy cried, “you’ve been immuno-compromised!” I checked, he’s right. But that compromise comes from spike protein whether its from the vaccine or from covid.
Please feel free to expand on your observation, it’s valid.
Question, David, it’s a bit late in the game to be considering to vaccinate, or not. Is this maybe a feeler to see what people are thinking, instead?
I think, the entire situation sucks. I think, people cannot trust government to run studies and publish truth. I think, government needs to back completely away from this issue.
Personal anecdote, as a critical care RN. During the post-vaccine phase, I saw a clear-cut difference between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated in clinical outcomes. Essentially, the vaccinated very rarely died or were severely affected. The unvaccinated who caught COVID often suffered severely. Weeks spent on a bipap or intubated. Several patients whom I thought would survive chose to die rather than face another week or two on a bipap machine. They asked to have the machine removed, signed the paperwork, and smothered to death in 30 minutes or a few hours, simple supplemental O2 not being sufficient. So, from my perspective, the vaccines 'worked'. I got the first two and none of the boosters, and have had a mild case of COVID.
Now, it is extremely rare to have a severely affected COVID patient, and has been since the end of February 2022. It's a whole different world, and it's not because out treatments are much better. They are not. People still are catching it, and a few of them end up in hospital. What we commonly see now is an elderly person who falls, and it turns out they have COVID. We suppose that they fell because COVID made them weaker, but old people fall a lot anyway.
Looking at https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/, it seems that the peak in mortality in December 2022 was almost as high as the corona peaks, and for people below the age of 44, it was even higher. Not sure what to make of that, except that it's curious that no one seems to be talking about it.
I took the Trump vaccine August 2020, late enough that if it was poison it would have shown up by then. Enough administrative system Democrats were criticizing the Trump vaccine that if it had real problems they would have been promoted for finding said problems. And the vaccine was obviously safer than the one we used to beat polio. I hate vaccines, but my job forced me to take one.
The moral panic was in full stride.
There's an obvious class distinction between people who can wear masks in offices, no sweat, and people who climb stairs and jump in and out of trucks and pick up heavy things and just can't wear masks and breathe heavily. Pushed the moral panic.
I did lockdown in Mexico, which ended up being one of the loose countries (the President said, "No worries, the borders are open, Jesus will protect the children."
At the start, we gave into fear. I was living with 2 daughters (one from your neck of the woods, David, UCSB where the entire campus shut down) and 3 others, friends, and a future son-in-law. We ordered massive amounts of food and locked ourselves in the house.
After a few months (around June, 2020) we were going insane. We voted, decided to open the house, and became the go-to weekend club for our friend group. I partied everyweek for 6 months, alchohol, drugs, kissing and sex with random friends of friends. The parties usually brought 50-70 people, Mexicans and expat Americans and Brits as well as a mixture of other people who'd come to Guadalajara since it was fairly open in comparison to other places (but bars still had to close at midnight and no clubs were allowed to be open).
Being in my mid-fifties, some said I had a death wish. Perhaps, but perhaps not, perhaps I did the math and figured the odds were slim enough against death that I'd likely live and therefore, having a good time was preferable to isolated insanity.
I used to live in California and spent an average of ~ 80-100 hours a month driving (a loose educated guess) so I wonder if I had more chance of death by trading a communte to home office, but not isolating?
Slightly OT but (I am framing this question as neutrally as possible) how important/effective are masks at this stage (Eris or whatever the current strain is called)?
Asking for a friend who had COVID twice, didn’t have symptoms the second time, got the vax, got the booster or maybe two he lost count and is arguing with a loved one who thinks masking is as critical as it was in 2020. Links to credible sources a plus.
Everybody’s likely hesitant to comment.
Before I got the original two-shot series, I asked quite a number of med professionals if they’d experienced any ill effects. At that time, none had. Today very many people cite studies and real evidence that at very least, suggest it’s dangerous.
I did it because I’m older, live alone and if hospitalized, no one would tend my animals. Although I’ve experienced no negative side effects, I did get covid and its duration was just five days.
If I had it to do over I’d do the same, but I’ll recommend vaccination to no one. It’s a risk-driven, personal decision. If mandated I will never comply.
All-cause mortality was higher in the vaccine group in the Pfizer randomized controlled trial. It's odd to discuss vaccination without risks of vaccination compared to risks of COVID.
The second round of covid is only getting as much mileage as it has because there are people who are still hermits from the first round. I know a family who still wipes down their groceries. I view it as pure OCD. There are lots of germs in the world; covid is not the worst.
The Talmud talks about a disease that was similar to a cold, except that many people who got it died. I would assume that, like covid, it mutated until it was unusual for it to kill people.
I agree with this post overall but would add that there was one subgroup of the Swedish population that had a FAR greater excess mortality compared to other countries and that was the very elderly. A German statistician laid this out in a very rigorous analysis but that was probably almost 2 years ago. Personally, I had a 60-year-old friend who died in a country that didn't have vaccines yet when he got infected. He had no known health problems whatsoever. Not getting vaccinated when we're old and/or have known risk factors is simply stupid. And so is the failure to recognize that the overwhelming majority of doctors, public health officers, and politicians have had only an evolving understanding of what needed to be done to save lives. Replacing such recognition with fringe theories has already cost many lives unnecessarily.
I was slightly disappointed by this piece as it comes across as if you haven’t familiarised yourself with the sceptical sides of the argument much.
1. If vaccines do protect you against serious illness, what’s the argument for getting vaccinated to protect others (as they could get vaccinated if they wish)? I’ve heard it argued that some of the most vulnerable are least able to benefit from vaccines, so it is for their sake. That of course assumes that the vaccines prevent transmission. As is widely recognised now, they are seriously lacking in this regard. But was this ever a serious argument? I would say that it is not; as is known by the medical profession but not widely advertised, vaccines for diseases that spread quickly and hence mutate quickly have unimpressive efficacy. I didn’t know this before but since I educated myself have stopped taking the regular flu vaccine. Even if you managed to produce a vaccine tailored for a variant, by the time you have got the vaccine available and rolled it out a new variant is doing the rounds. They only really work for diseases that are relatively stable and don’t mutate easily. Diseases that are both stable and dangerous don’t get very far. Vaccines are valuable for such diseases, but it’s about protecting the individual, not about the community.
2. The herd immunity concept isn’t helpful. As a sceptic about lockdowns right from the start I was also guilty of focusing on the Great Barrington Declaration idea that we should protect the vulnerable whilst herd immunity developed naturally in the rest of the population. Viruses can travel significant distances in the air and will work through the population until most people have been exposed. The idea that it’s spread person to person in close proximity, and that you are safe as long as you keep 2m away from everybody else is a fantasy. Whatever your views on the theory, the real life example of Sweden outperforming ALL the other countries in the EU on mortality proves the point. Some observers have drawn the conclusion that none of the countries that locked down did so hard enough, but that’s not a realistic policy proposal in free and democratic countries. It would also only postpone the inevitable, noting also that once you open up, the virus will have evolved and you will have a population with weakened immune systems.
3. Mortality rates for Covid just aren’t that high. The vast majority of deaths were in very elderly individuals with co-morbidities. There is no question whatsoever that the lockdown and vaccine drives where a huge net negative for society (not to mention individuals who suffered side effects from the vaccine, or were damaged by lockdowns). I’d like to think that if I was 85 years old and was given the choice between what we did and dying 2 years earlier than I otherwise would, I would do the honourable thing. Obviously, that's easier said than done if immersed in media generated panic.
4. The efficacy of the vaccines, even in protecting the elderly, is disputed. A number of statistical tricks/effects were used to inflate efficacy (not necessarily deliberately).
Resources:
Vaccine efficacy tricks:
https://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/p/vaccine-efficacy-cheap-trick-by-exclusion
Transmission:
I don’t have a specific link but this person’s book covers the topic and is useful
https://drclarecraig.substack.com/p/book-launch
Virus lethality, this article isn't conclusive but is thought provoking:
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/the-greatest-lie-told-during-covid
Seems like the vaccines aren't working...and there are significant side effect risks.
True. Risks of vaccination are clear, but those of us who’ve so far experienced no ill effects stand around with fingers crossed. One guy cried, “you’ve been immuno-compromised!” I checked, he’s right. But that compromise comes from spike protein whether its from the vaccine or from covid.
Please feel free to expand on your observation, it’s valid.
Question, David, it’s a bit late in the game to be considering to vaccinate, or not. Is this maybe a feeler to see what people are thinking, instead?
I think, the entire situation sucks. I think, people cannot trust government to run studies and publish truth. I think, government needs to back completely away from this issue.
Personal anecdote, as a critical care RN. During the post-vaccine phase, I saw a clear-cut difference between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated in clinical outcomes. Essentially, the vaccinated very rarely died or were severely affected. The unvaccinated who caught COVID often suffered severely. Weeks spent on a bipap or intubated. Several patients whom I thought would survive chose to die rather than face another week or two on a bipap machine. They asked to have the machine removed, signed the paperwork, and smothered to death in 30 minutes or a few hours, simple supplemental O2 not being sufficient. So, from my perspective, the vaccines 'worked'. I got the first two and none of the boosters, and have had a mild case of COVID.
Now, it is extremely rare to have a severely affected COVID patient, and has been since the end of February 2022. It's a whole different world, and it's not because out treatments are much better. They are not. People still are catching it, and a few of them end up in hospital. What we commonly see now is an elderly person who falls, and it turns out they have COVID. We suppose that they fell because COVID made them weaker, but old people fall a lot anyway.
I no longer worry much about COVID.
Looking at https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/, it seems that the peak in mortality in December 2022 was almost as high as the corona peaks, and for people below the age of 44, it was even higher. Not sure what to make of that, except that it's curious that no one seems to be talking about it.
I took the Trump vaccine August 2020, late enough that if it was poison it would have shown up by then. Enough administrative system Democrats were criticizing the Trump vaccine that if it had real problems they would have been promoted for finding said problems. And the vaccine was obviously safer than the one we used to beat polio. I hate vaccines, but my job forced me to take one.
The moral panic was in full stride.
There's an obvious class distinction between people who can wear masks in offices, no sweat, and people who climb stairs and jump in and out of trucks and pick up heavy things and just can't wear masks and breathe heavily. Pushed the moral panic.
I won't take another unless forced.
I did lockdown in Mexico, which ended up being one of the loose countries (the President said, "No worries, the borders are open, Jesus will protect the children."
At the start, we gave into fear. I was living with 2 daughters (one from your neck of the woods, David, UCSB where the entire campus shut down) and 3 others, friends, and a future son-in-law. We ordered massive amounts of food and locked ourselves in the house.
After a few months (around June, 2020) we were going insane. We voted, decided to open the house, and became the go-to weekend club for our friend group. I partied everyweek for 6 months, alchohol, drugs, kissing and sex with random friends of friends. The parties usually brought 50-70 people, Mexicans and expat Americans and Brits as well as a mixture of other people who'd come to Guadalajara since it was fairly open in comparison to other places (but bars still had to close at midnight and no clubs were allowed to be open).
Being in my mid-fifties, some said I had a death wish. Perhaps, but perhaps not, perhaps I did the math and figured the odds were slim enough against death that I'd likely live and therefore, having a good time was preferable to isolated insanity.
I used to live in California and spent an average of ~ 80-100 hours a month driving (a loose educated guess) so I wonder if I had more chance of death by trading a communte to home office, but not isolating?
Slightly OT but (I am framing this question as neutrally as possible) how important/effective are masks at this stage (Eris or whatever the current strain is called)?
Asking for a friend who had COVID twice, didn’t have symptoms the second time, got the vax, got the booster or maybe two he lost count and is arguing with a loved one who thinks masking is as critical as it was in 2020. Links to credible sources a plus.