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Brian's avatar

A similar discussion of last names and wealth over time can be seen here (Britian) https://www.takimag.com/article/class-and-family/

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Mallard's avatar

>the fact that total global warming in the past century comes to about one degree centigrade, too slow for anyone to notice in his own lifetime

Does the former necessarily imply the latter? While a 1 C shift in mean temperature is not noticeable, shifting the temperature distribution to the right by even a fraction of a degree, might be noticeable on the tails, as the density of the leftmost tail decreases a lot, and the density of the rightmost tail increases a lot.

For example, if a city has a mean temperature of 12 C and a SD of 10 C, only 0.1% of days would be 42 C or above, but if the mean rose to 12.5 C, the share of days 42 or above would double to 0.2%.

[I'm assuming each day has a single temperature for illustrative purposes.]

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