10 Comments

The first version I head of was picking some random stock and sending out 512 emails predicting it would drop and 512 predicting it would rise. Next week, pick some other random stock and send out 256 similar up/down emails to whichever half had gotten the "correct" prediction. Repeat until there's just one left, who now thinks you've been right so often that this one must be right too, and you make money off him buying to raise the price so you can dump it.

Expand full comment

A single convinced buyer is unlikely to buy enough to significantly raise the price.

The version I am familiar with involves an investment newsletter or something similar. After you have called the bets correctly four times in a row you sell subscriptions to 1/16th of your mailing list.

It is important because it is a reason not to rely too strongly on an advisor with a good record. Even if he is entirely honest, he may be the one investor in sixteen who called the bets correctly by chance the last four times. And the fifteen losers can restart their investment newsletter with a new title and try again.

Expand full comment

Eh, the numbers and fractions don't matter as an example. I'm sure everybody understands that.

Expand full comment

Last year, I received one of those threatening emails that said they had recorded me masturbating to appalling, embarrassing, and reputation-destroying sites. I was terrified! They were right! I had indeed viewed socially unacceptable libertarian writing and I probably showed signs of excitement. My god, what was I to do?

Seriously, even if I had been looking at something embarrassing, there is no way I have a camera pointed at me and there is no way -- as you note -- that the evil-doer could have a video of me watching a video -- or worse, reading an essay attacking the current deeply statist consensus.

When I did not respond to the demand, the nasty parasites sent another threatening message. I was strongly tempted to respond by telling them exactly how evil and stupid they were and where they could stick their threat... but I refrained. Silence is the best response.

Expand full comment

My current employment is in a legitimate commercial email operation . It's not uncommon for our spam filters to kill off a million incoming mails of that swindle, in a day. The "free as in beer" nature of public email makes automated mass produced fraud quite easy. I'm told and have some evidence that "plug and play" toolkits for frauds are sold on the "Dark Web". The evidence is that sometimes the incoming spam has unfilled placeholders from incompetent users of the toolkit.

Expand full comment

I have read the idea that misspellings, unfilled placeholders, and so on are sometimes done on purpose to weed out the "intelligent" readers.

Expand full comment

Interesting.

As for Rex Stout, I've read all the Nero Wolfe stories (loved them), and 2 of the 3 Tecumseh Fox novels (liked them and will read the third when I get around to finding it). Quite a few of the stories involved balackmail or the threat of, as I remember.

And I loved the TV Nero Wolfe series. My wife doesn't like the Wolfe stories, but she loved the TV show, and Timothy Hutton was the perfect Archie Goodwin. I thought Maury CHaykin was a good, but not perfect Wolfe.

I was okay with the William Conrad Wolfe, but only okay, and I didn't think Lee Horsley really captured the essence of Archie.

Anyway, thanks for bringing up the memories.

Expand full comment

There is a series of historical novels set in Venice that are obviously patterned on the Nero Wolfe stories and pretty good, although not as good. https://www.amazon.com/Alchemists-Apprentice-Dave-Duncan/dp/0441015751.

Expand full comment

I'll check them out. I like some of Duncan's other stuff.

And I loved Randall Garrett's Lord D'Arcy takeoff on Sherlock Holmes in a world where magic works and the Plantagent line didn't die out and Poland is Britain's major opponent. Good stuff.

Expand full comment

Oh, and Nero Wolfe exists in London as the Marquis of London and has an Archie Goodwin named Lord Bontriomphe.

Expand full comment