The current contests for the Republican and Democratic nomination raise interesting tactical issues as do previous contests. I start with the 2020 Democratic contest which had multiple candidates no one of whom started with a commanding lead, in contrast to the 2024 contests of both parties.
For people who would like to interact in real time, I host an online meetup on Saturday mornings as well as a very occasional realspace meetup, originally for readers of the blog Slate Star Codex. Details:
Back in 2000 I sent a check to Ireland (this was before there were all these money sending apps, I actually wrote a physical check and put it into a physical envelope with some stamps, lol) in order to fund a Tradesports account so I could buy futures contracts on Bush.
I was reasonably sure he was going to win (and I think the contracts were in the 50-50 range, with small flucuations).
Unfortunately, due to mailing times and the time it took to clear the bank, it was too late for me to buy contracts in the 2000 elections. Sadly... It was a crazy contract because if you were holding Bush contracts and the news came out that Gore had won, and you panicked and sold as the contracts nosedived, you'd have been screwed about a day or so later...oh, well, good fun.
I then lost all my money buying Jeb Bush contracts and various basketball contracts and then Tradesports was closed down (damn statists probably, but maybe they mismanaged the money, I don't recall what happened).
Today there is Kalshi, but they've been unable to get approval to offer contracts on politics, sadly.
In the 2000 cycle, if I recall correctly, all but one contract in American politics (house, senate, potus) settled in the oppposite direction of it's early pricing, seemingly to show once again the effectiveness of mass opinions on market predictions.
Anywhoooo, I bought some contracts against NASA putting a human on the moon by EOY 2024, but the payoff was so small I was bored, so I sold them and bought the opposite side. Not likely to happen, but earning a few pennies was pointless, so I figured I'd bet against my own senses. Maybe AI will speed up the process and NASA will surprise us all with a manned mission in 2024 to the moon, you know, to show Elon Musk who's boss. These contracts are at about 8 cents right now (on a dollar contract).
Kalshi, in their papers/arguements to legislators on why they should be allowed to sell futures contracts on American politics is obvious, if you're a business owner, there are plenty of things to hedge against that involve who's going to be POTUS.
For people who would like to interact in real time, I host an online meetup on Saturday mornings as well as a very occasional realspace meetup, originally for readers of the blog Slate Star Codex. Details:
http://www.daviddfriedman.com/SSC%20Meetups%20announcement.html
Boy, I miss Tradesports.
Back in 2000 I sent a check to Ireland (this was before there were all these money sending apps, I actually wrote a physical check and put it into a physical envelope with some stamps, lol) in order to fund a Tradesports account so I could buy futures contracts on Bush.
I was reasonably sure he was going to win (and I think the contracts were in the 50-50 range, with small flucuations).
Unfortunately, due to mailing times and the time it took to clear the bank, it was too late for me to buy contracts in the 2000 elections. Sadly... It was a crazy contract because if you were holding Bush contracts and the news came out that Gore had won, and you panicked and sold as the contracts nosedived, you'd have been screwed about a day or so later...oh, well, good fun.
I then lost all my money buying Jeb Bush contracts and various basketball contracts and then Tradesports was closed down (damn statists probably, but maybe they mismanaged the money, I don't recall what happened).
Today there is Kalshi, but they've been unable to get approval to offer contracts on politics, sadly.
In the 2000 cycle, if I recall correctly, all but one contract in American politics (house, senate, potus) settled in the oppposite direction of it's early pricing, seemingly to show once again the effectiveness of mass opinions on market predictions.
Anywhoooo, I bought some contracts against NASA putting a human on the moon by EOY 2024, but the payoff was so small I was bored, so I sold them and bought the opposite side. Not likely to happen, but earning a few pennies was pointless, so I figured I'd bet against my own senses. Maybe AI will speed up the process and NASA will surprise us all with a manned mission in 2024 to the moon, you know, to show Elon Musk who's boss. These contracts are at about 8 cents right now (on a dollar contract).
Kalshi, in their papers/arguements to legislators on why they should be allowed to sell futures contracts on American politics is obvious, if you're a business owner, there are plenty of things to hedge against that involve who's going to be POTUS.
Chris Centerist votes R in some elections and D in others, but Randy and Russel Republican are apathetic and only vote if they like the R candidate.
It's fine for a candidate to be radical if they can get Russel and Randy to turn out, even if they loose Chris.