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Scott Alexander on the Subject of my Previous Post
Scott Alexander, commenting in his most recent open thread:
“… a scientific consensus is also much weaker than a market, because everyone has good incentives in a market (you either make or lose money) but often has bad incentives in a scientific consensus (you lose your job if you disagree, regardless of whether or not it's true; you get promoted if you agree, again regardless . . . ) So using a prediction market as an analogy for a scientific consensus kind of breaks down.”
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