Technology and the Cost of Carbon: A Second Try (revised)
daviddfriedman.substack.com
One of my chief criticisms of Rennert et. al. 2022 is that it calculates the cost imposed by an additional ton of CO2 by summing costs from now to 2300 while almost entirely ignoring technological change, in effect assuming technological stasis. That raises the question of how one ought to model technological change in trying to calculate costs over a long period of time. My initial response was that you can't do it, that any estimate of effects centuries in the future is a wild guess, science fiction not science. But that started me thinking about how, if I had to do it, I would.
Technology and the Cost of Carbon: A Second Try (revised)
Technology and the Cost of Carbon: A Second…
Technology and the Cost of Carbon: A Second Try (revised)
One of my chief criticisms of Rennert et. al. 2022 is that it calculates the cost imposed by an additional ton of CO2 by summing costs from now to 2300 while almost entirely ignoring technological change, in effect assuming technological stasis. That raises the question of how one ought to model technological change in trying to calculate costs over a long period of time. My initial response was that you can't do it, that any estimate of effects centuries in the future is a wild guess, science fiction not science. But that started me thinking about how, if I had to do it, I would.