Oh dear, well my first thought is my ex-wife was horniest when she was fertile, and with the rhythm method we might not have had any sex at all. (we used other forms of birth control.)
Your figure of 3.3 children per couple is way below the number of children I've heard about from traditional Catholic families. I can't identify any error in your numbers, but this makes me think something in them is off.
Its been a while since I've researched this and I also know that this is a back of the envelope calculation, nevertheless I think that the miscarriage rate is probably significantly higher than 20 percent and also there are probably fairly significant declines in fertility/fecundity from at least age 20. I don't know many very religious catholics but I don't think that younger generations mostly use interruptus or rhythm, so im not sure how relevant the official advise is going forward.
The Akerlof Yellen paper is pretty interesting and seems to match the data much better than the typical welfare explanation. On the net effect of contraception and such, I can imagine how it would have benefits on net among adults, but my guess is that the cost to children and such is just much greater and as large long term effects. There are also broader utilitarian arguments against contraception and such although im uncertain how sound they are.
Im not sure that Catholic countries were much higher in fertility in the 19C, than other Christian countries (comparing otherwise culturally similar societies). Certainly the US saw amazing growth in population, not entirely or mostly driven by immigration, in the 19C, from 6 to 80 million. I don’t think any Catholic country comes close.
However some of this was due to lower child fatality, or general fatality statistics in the new vs the old world.
Oh dear, well my first thought is my ex-wife was horniest when she was fertile, and with the rhythm method we might not have had any sex at all. (we used other forms of birth control.)
Your figure of 3.3 children per couple is way below the number of children I've heard about from traditional Catholic families. I can't identify any error in your numbers, but this makes me think something in them is off.
Its been a while since I've researched this and I also know that this is a back of the envelope calculation, nevertheless I think that the miscarriage rate is probably significantly higher than 20 percent and also there are probably fairly significant declines in fertility/fecundity from at least age 20. I don't know many very religious catholics but I don't think that younger generations mostly use interruptus or rhythm, so im not sure how relevant the official advise is going forward.
The Akerlof Yellen paper is pretty interesting and seems to match the data much better than the typical welfare explanation. On the net effect of contraception and such, I can imagine how it would have benefits on net among adults, but my guess is that the cost to children and such is just much greater and as large long term effects. There are also broader utilitarian arguments against contraception and such although im uncertain how sound they are.
Im not sure that Catholic countries were much higher in fertility in the 19C, than other Christian countries (comparing otherwise culturally similar societies). Certainly the US saw amazing growth in population, not entirely or mostly driven by immigration, in the 19C, from 6 to 80 million. I don’t think any Catholic country comes close.
However some of this was due to lower child fatality, or general fatality statistics in the new vs the old world.
The Catholic Church Is a Criminal Enterprise
https://www.mattball.org/2022/06/the-catholic-church-is-criminal.html