"Trump’s rise in America was in part a story of flyover country against the coastal elites. By Orban’s account that, with suitable translation, is the story of the rise of the European right as well."
That had to be said, loud and clear. Trumpism is a phenomenon of Europe, too.
The European Right is a curious phenomenon, resulting from the confluence of various factors. I cannot go extensively through all those I know of, but there is something very interesting going on in Portugal that you might not learn about from American media. In fact, this happens with other European countries, but in different forms.
Succinctly: We just had an election in may, and, yet again, the so-called far right managed to surprise most commentators, since it not only had great numbers, it managed to practically reach 2nd place, neck and neck with the Socialist Party which had been on a string of victories from 2015 to 2023. But this is not the interesting part. What's very interesting is that it got its best results in southern Portugal, the very same region where the Socialist Party dominates.
It is hard to convey how significant this is. To be fair, this is isn't completely new, as for the past 5 years or so it had also become evident to many that this far right party, called Chega, had been grabbing votes from the Communist Party! Both of these parties have most of their representation in the south, which encompasses an arid interior region which has traditionally been dependent on extensive agricultural production (this is changing slightly with improvements in water distribution (dams), technology, and other things), and Algarve, which lives mostly from tourism in its Mediterranean beaches. The capital Lisbon, in the coastal center, leans left too, but it is a cosmopolitan kind of left (more Trotskyist, or social-democrat, than Marxist). The north is more individualist, it tends to vote for the center-right party, but curiously the far-right Chega had nowhere near the same level of success there. All three of these have had a lot of immigration, but the north did have some as well without a corresponding surge in Chega support.
I think all of this is meaningful. It's not unique to Portugal at all - for example, Berlusconi in Italy had support from the south, a region with similar geography to Portugal's south. In Germany, support for the far right comes from the ex-GDR, where Die Linked had also been strong. One of the reasons this is interesting is that it reminds us of connections between geography and political leaning. A french sociologist once said: Granite votes right, limestone votes left.
Perhaps the main implication of this phenomenon, though, is in our understanding of the political axis. Pundits have been for many years calling out the dangers of the far right for the mainstream center right party in Portugal. Leftist pundits do this to associate intolerance with right wing politics. Far right supporters do it to pressure the right to crack down on immigration. Because it is not in the interest of any major player to recognize the trend, it can only be uncovered through deliberate inquiry.
Edit: I notice there is a hole in my last paragraph, which is - why doesn't the center-right call this out? It might be because they are not libertarian, they don't want to call out Chega's socialist policies because they like some of them. In my opinion, which is contrarian here, they've been playing it well. So far, they have refused alliances with the far right. This will bear fruits once it is clear that socialists and far-rightists are actually both on the left, and that they still have most of the market share of pro-business fiscally responsible voters.
I find this comment in Orban's speech interesting: that the revolutionary spirit of the 1960s "was an expression of the belief that the individual would be freer and greater if he or she were freed from any kind of collective." I don't see the 1960s that way at all. It wasn't people expressing their individual values and freedom; it was people adopting different collectives than the ones their parents and "society" wanted them do. I agree with Orban's comment about community, but I would say the problem with the 1960s was that the new collectives people joined in protest weren't communities: they were either mobs or tyrannies.
Your conversation in Spain highlights one aspect of what the European version of the MAGA-movement is like: a blatant disregard for facts for the purpose of bolstering nationalism. Orban is indeed a fitting representative for that movement as he is clearly not stupid, only very misguided. A bit like Vance, perhaps. The paradox of nationalists from different countries coming together was highlighted when Trump announced the "Liberation Day" tariffs. How do nationalists from Europe respond when who they thought of as an ally (Trump) suddenly hits them with tariffs in the name of the very same nationalism that they promote? Do they wish to reciprocate? If their nationalist bluster is to be believed, they should. Yet they hesitate to do so.
I have trouble following Orban's arguments as quoted and this is typical it seems of all arguments from the right. Unlike Orban (or yourself) I have no PhD, nor even a degree, but I have a brain and I do try to use it. The overriding impression I get is of someone trying to argue for a position which they do not actually believe. There is an intellectual dishonesty about the far right.
I realize the original post is about the right, but your own emphasis on the right puzzles me.
Why "all arguments from the right" only? Do you think left arguments are easier to follow, and that the "far left" actually believe in their agenda and are intellectually honest?
They're politicians. They don't believe anything, and they believe everything.
If Orban is "far right", what do you call "far left"? Orban has been governing more or less by the law, as opposed to being a dictator. That doesn't seem to leave much room for true dictators like Hitler, Stalin, and Mao, or even modern day Xi and Putin, both less murderous than their predecessors.
There is one small detail that Orban forgets to mention in his sweeping civilisation account pitting Hungary against the EU, which may be of interest to the economically-minded: Hungary is a net recipient of transfers from the EU to the tune of more than 4 bn euro or more than 2.5 percent of GDP. To borrow from Donald Trump’s colourful language, one is tempted to say that Hungarian state has been invented to screw the EU. And, somewhat inexplicably, at least if one adopts a Trump/Orban perspective, the EU goes along with that.
I wonder how well Orban's views match other EU right wing views.
If pressed, I would have put current EU and US civil unrest and electoral upsets as down to the left pushing its program too fast and generating too much backlash for society to absorb. The right is reacting as all pendulums do.
The only real mystery to me is the US 2026 and 2028 elections. Midterms like 2026 usually go against the President, and that 3-seat majority in the House would normally be toast, especially with Trump tariffs disrupting the economy. But the left doesn't seem to have got the message that wokism and climate crisis are out of favor. The 2026 elections are the left's to lose, and they may just do that.
2028 is impossible to guess. If Trump weren't messing up the economy, I would have guessed his vice-president JD Vance would be a shoo-in, because the electorate would not yet be tired of winning. But Biden's inflation dropped below 4% in June 2023 and voters still remembered it in November 2024.
Nothing I can do about it, and I don't particularly like popcorn. Guess I'll just wait and see.
"Trump’s rise in America was in part a story of flyover country against the coastal elites. By Orban’s account that, with suitable translation, is the story of the rise of the European right as well."
That had to be said, loud and clear. Trumpism is a phenomenon of Europe, too.
The European Right is a curious phenomenon, resulting from the confluence of various factors. I cannot go extensively through all those I know of, but there is something very interesting going on in Portugal that you might not learn about from American media. In fact, this happens with other European countries, but in different forms.
Succinctly: We just had an election in may, and, yet again, the so-called far right managed to surprise most commentators, since it not only had great numbers, it managed to practically reach 2nd place, neck and neck with the Socialist Party which had been on a string of victories from 2015 to 2023. But this is not the interesting part. What's very interesting is that it got its best results in southern Portugal, the very same region where the Socialist Party dominates.
It is hard to convey how significant this is. To be fair, this is isn't completely new, as for the past 5 years or so it had also become evident to many that this far right party, called Chega, had been grabbing votes from the Communist Party! Both of these parties have most of their representation in the south, which encompasses an arid interior region which has traditionally been dependent on extensive agricultural production (this is changing slightly with improvements in water distribution (dams), technology, and other things), and Algarve, which lives mostly from tourism in its Mediterranean beaches. The capital Lisbon, in the coastal center, leans left too, but it is a cosmopolitan kind of left (more Trotskyist, or social-democrat, than Marxist). The north is more individualist, it tends to vote for the center-right party, but curiously the far-right Chega had nowhere near the same level of success there. All three of these have had a lot of immigration, but the north did have some as well without a corresponding surge in Chega support.
I think all of this is meaningful. It's not unique to Portugal at all - for example, Berlusconi in Italy had support from the south, a region with similar geography to Portugal's south. In Germany, support for the far right comes from the ex-GDR, where Die Linked had also been strong. One of the reasons this is interesting is that it reminds us of connections between geography and political leaning. A french sociologist once said: Granite votes right, limestone votes left.
Perhaps the main implication of this phenomenon, though, is in our understanding of the political axis. Pundits have been for many years calling out the dangers of the far right for the mainstream center right party in Portugal. Leftist pundits do this to associate intolerance with right wing politics. Far right supporters do it to pressure the right to crack down on immigration. Because it is not in the interest of any major player to recognize the trend, it can only be uncovered through deliberate inquiry.
Edit: I notice there is a hole in my last paragraph, which is - why doesn't the center-right call this out? It might be because they are not libertarian, they don't want to call out Chega's socialist policies because they like some of them. In my opinion, which is contrarian here, they've been playing it well. So far, they have refused alliances with the far right. This will bear fruits once it is clear that socialists and far-rightists are actually both on the left, and that they still have most of the market share of pro-business fiscally responsible voters.
I find this comment in Orban's speech interesting: that the revolutionary spirit of the 1960s "was an expression of the belief that the individual would be freer and greater if he or she were freed from any kind of collective." I don't see the 1960s that way at all. It wasn't people expressing their individual values and freedom; it was people adopting different collectives than the ones their parents and "society" wanted them do. I agree with Orban's comment about community, but I would say the problem with the 1960s was that the new collectives people joined in protest weren't communities: they were either mobs or tyrannies.
Your conversation in Spain highlights one aspect of what the European version of the MAGA-movement is like: a blatant disregard for facts for the purpose of bolstering nationalism. Orban is indeed a fitting representative for that movement as he is clearly not stupid, only very misguided. A bit like Vance, perhaps. The paradox of nationalists from different countries coming together was highlighted when Trump announced the "Liberation Day" tariffs. How do nationalists from Europe respond when who they thought of as an ally (Trump) suddenly hits them with tariffs in the name of the very same nationalism that they promote? Do they wish to reciprocate? If their nationalist bluster is to be believed, they should. Yet they hesitate to do so.
I have trouble following Orban's arguments as quoted and this is typical it seems of all arguments from the right. Unlike Orban (or yourself) I have no PhD, nor even a degree, but I have a brain and I do try to use it. The overriding impression I get is of someone trying to argue for a position which they do not actually believe. There is an intellectual dishonesty about the far right.
I realize the original post is about the right, but your own emphasis on the right puzzles me.
Why "all arguments from the right" only? Do you think left arguments are easier to follow, and that the "far left" actually believe in their agenda and are intellectually honest?
They're politicians. They don't believe anything, and they believe everything.
If Orban is "far right", what do you call "far left"? Orban has been governing more or less by the law, as opposed to being a dictator. That doesn't seem to leave much room for true dictators like Hitler, Stalin, and Mao, or even modern day Xi and Putin, both less murderous than their predecessors.
There is one small detail that Orban forgets to mention in his sweeping civilisation account pitting Hungary against the EU, which may be of interest to the economically-minded: Hungary is a net recipient of transfers from the EU to the tune of more than 4 bn euro or more than 2.5 percent of GDP. To borrow from Donald Trump’s colourful language, one is tempted to say that Hungarian state has been invented to screw the EU. And, somewhat inexplicably, at least if one adopts a Trump/Orban perspective, the EU goes along with that.
Somewhat off topic, but I was wondering what your thoughts on the following post might be:
https://open.substack.com/pub/bariweiss/p/the-knowledge-system-collapse?r=ewwfu&utm_medium=ios
I think he exaggerates.
I wonder how well Orban's views match other EU right wing views.
If pressed, I would have put current EU and US civil unrest and electoral upsets as down to the left pushing its program too fast and generating too much backlash for society to absorb. The right is reacting as all pendulums do.
The only real mystery to me is the US 2026 and 2028 elections. Midterms like 2026 usually go against the President, and that 3-seat majority in the House would normally be toast, especially with Trump tariffs disrupting the economy. But the left doesn't seem to have got the message that wokism and climate crisis are out of favor. The 2026 elections are the left's to lose, and they may just do that.
2028 is impossible to guess. If Trump weren't messing up the economy, I would have guessed his vice-president JD Vance would be a shoo-in, because the electorate would not yet be tired of winning. But Biden's inflation dropped below 4% in June 2023 and voters still remembered it in November 2024.
Nothing I can do about it, and I don't particularly like popcorn. Guess I'll just wait and see.