I put the national debt problem first, because neither party has shown any interest in countering it. Whatever happens, whether one of the other two scenarios or something else, that debt problem will overshadow everything.
We're already living in the left wing dystopia. Trump is trying to fix the damage.
The damage to our energy infrastructure alone, by the Dems trying to follow Germany into energy oblivion has cost us trillions and will cost more before it is fixed. Not to mention hundreds who have frozen to death or who can no longer afford heating and/or cooling.
Fix some, break some, I suppose that's better than Joe "Break Everything" Biden. I'd really like a President who didn't think he needed to break anything.
I think that if things blow up in the USA, some other currently pleasant places might become unpleasant as well. For example, military adventures might drag in governments formally allied to the US. If you are looking forward to a comfortable retirement in a reasonably rich English-speaking country with opportunities to travel and lecture, Ireland and Dubai are ticking most boxes while having a good track record of neutrality in recent conflicts. Both have somewhat unpleasant climates (though in very different ways) and Dubai's neighborhood is getting a bit scary lately.
Another thing maybe worth considering is keeping one's wealth out of harm's way; a financially troubled US government could get a lot greedier than it currently is on one hand, and the international banking system is too dependent on both American financial services and US government debt on the other hand. Perhaps, shifting a considerable part of savings into cryptocurrencies with some track record of safety and resilience (Bitcoin being the most conservative choice) might be worth considering. Dubai is amazingly crypto-friendly, I was able to live there for many months without a bank account, entirely on crypto: both long term rent or outright purchase of housing and vehicles is doable directly in crypto, and there is a very liquid and convenient market for exchanging cryptocurrencies into cash or online purchase certificates for anything from groceries to clothing, home decor and entertainment. There is a large class of wealthy un-banked people living there (upper middle-class Russians) providing the necessary economies of scale for businesses to serve them.
Full disclosure: We have moved to Dubai mostly for tax reasons, spending the hottest months in Europe (legally) as tourists. In practice, we kept our home in Hungary, just don't spend most of the year here anymore. But TBH, right now I am happy not to be in Dubai, not only because of the scorching heat.
Actually I'm pretty well convinced the country is already long gone to hell and a wrecking ball in D.C., President Trump, may well be the only way to save it and civilization as well. Not that I think (Though I do hope.) such will happen.
Right wing-populist takeover of the political system? I don't see chance of such happening but as I see the present situation not as right versus left but right against wrong I don't see a downside to such.
A left-wing, possibly progressive,dystopia; my opinion we've been there, doing that,having that for decades.
National debt? Why yes I'm old enough to remember nickle Cokes, eleven cent a gallon gasoline, fifteen cent pulp mags, and forty cents a dozen eggs. The dozen hasn't gotten any bigger, the Coke bottle has gotten smaller but the prices sure have risen. Government, on the other hand, has gotten a lot bigger and far more expensive, while what I see as valid government services; arbitrating between you and me while protecting us from them seem almost nonexistent.
Our one party system, democrats and loyal RINOs, is a massive juggernaut, their wheels greased by media and academia, is almost impossible to stop.
"I don’t know what happens at that point and would prefer to observe the process from a safe distance." Me, I'm sitting up here atop the world, Russia to the west, socialist Canada to the east but Alaska's population being around one person per square mile, me and mine have a bit of wiggle room no matter what.
& why yes, I am sure we can agree to disagree. Grin.
"The less obvious dystopia is a left-wing, possibly progressive, one." This seems at least as obvious to me (although delayed while the Dems lack the presidency). BTW, recent and excellent projections of nightmarish "progressive" dystopias appear in Cancelled: The Shape of Things to Come, Danny King, and Mania, Lionel Shriver (both Prometheus Award finalists for this year).
Well, the fact that no one since Romney has been willing to openly name the source of most of the debt, namely entitlements, is not a promising sign in addressing it.
The debt bomb and especially its consequences were also discussed by Ray Dalio and with (to me) surprisingly similar implications. Are you aware of his writing? I assume no, and if so, both of you coming to similar conclusions make them even more scary.
A February 5, 2013 Time magazine article by Christopher Matthews entitled “The Federal Government's $128 Trillion Stockpile: The Answer to Our Debt Problems?” states that, according to an Institute for Energy Research (IER) report, the federal government owns over 900,000 real assets, mineral rights, underutilized buildings, and oil and gas resources worth a total of $128 trillion in 2013. The article states that, since the IER is a think tank that advocates energy deregulation, it may have overestimated the value of the assets, but even if the total value is half the estimate, it greatly exceeds the national debt. Besides, the government owns gold bullion and student loan debt estimated to total more than $1 trillion.
I'll add that, if these assets were sold, they'd be put to productive use in the private sector. Consequently, the taxpayers would save the costs of administering them and would be better able to afford what government remains.
Do you have a better proposal to deal with the national debt?
AI disaster on the scale of a country of a continent seems possible, and given the US lead in AI, if it happens anywhere, it seems most likely to happen in the US. That is different from worldwide disaster, not least because a disaster that really takes down the US seems likely to prevent or at least slow any wider scale disaster. That ought to include both humans intentionally using AI to do something that would have otherwise been impossible, and accidents where no human intended the behavior that led to the disaster.
China seems at least a potential source of massive problems. I don't think they are going to war, but it is something they have prepared for in various asymmetric ways - understandable given their history, and the sheer military and economic power of the US. And, short of war, there is the possibility they come up with something far more effective than their actions so far and decide the risks are worth it.
The demographic bomb could really snowball. Some of that is variance from our poor understanding of fertility, and some is the effects we do know about where current and recent fertility levels impact fertility levels. More likely is a variant where massive snowball effect hits only load bearing sub populations - which seems to somewhat already be happening. But reactions to that going extreme could also be bad.
This is perhaps too adjacent to some of your conjectures, but civil war seems to have a variety of possible modes. Those are pretty much all really bad.
The US used to spawn new religions repeatedly, some of them extremely fast spreading. That has largely stopped - but therefore, the metaphorical antibodies to such things have largely ceased. Moreover, some of the ways Christianity, organized Christianity, media, and the intellectual sphere might have intentionally worked against such a thing have vastly reduced power now. In that environment, something rather inimical might do quite a lot of damage.
There are ways in which it counts, and it did seem to spread rather quickly and widely. At the very least, it should be evidence that a new religion could spread quickly. Woke has not been without its downsides, but it has not, I think, reached the level of downfall for the country that you were talking about. A successor, or some religion seemingly out of left field, could be worse.
It is hard to predict the future based on people and politics. But even I can understand the implictions of your third scenario. I live on a private yacht and have done so for decades. Sounds grand eh? Maybe not so much in practice. But it has given me mobility and independence. Let me know if you want a skipper :-)
You still need to buy supplies, and that requires money, maybe gold. If you become known for carrying cash or gold, I wouldn't want to be on that yacht.
In these interesting times, I’m definitely glad that I’m not a US citizen; that I live an ocean away from the USA; and that I have no reason to visit the USA in the foreseeable future. It has been a great country, but it now seems a troubled country, and one that no longer welcomes visitors. I feel much safer here in Spain—a country with its own political problems, but they seem less threatening.
Thanks. I have a correspondent in Connecticut who has also suffered from power cuts in the past. In any case, I’m happy to be living in Spain; if you’re happy wherever you are, that’s fine, we’re both happy.
I put the national debt problem first, because neither party has shown any interest in countering it. Whatever happens, whether one of the other two scenarios or something else, that debt problem will overshadow everything.
We're already living in the left wing dystopia. Trump is trying to fix the damage.
The damage to our energy infrastructure alone, by the Dems trying to follow Germany into energy oblivion has cost us trillions and will cost more before it is fixed. Not to mention hundreds who have frozen to death or who can no longer afford heating and/or cooling.
Fix some, break some, I suppose that's better than Joe "Break Everything" Biden. I'd really like a President who didn't think he needed to break anything.
I think that if things blow up in the USA, some other currently pleasant places might become unpleasant as well. For example, military adventures might drag in governments formally allied to the US. If you are looking forward to a comfortable retirement in a reasonably rich English-speaking country with opportunities to travel and lecture, Ireland and Dubai are ticking most boxes while having a good track record of neutrality in recent conflicts. Both have somewhat unpleasant climates (though in very different ways) and Dubai's neighborhood is getting a bit scary lately.
Another thing maybe worth considering is keeping one's wealth out of harm's way; a financially troubled US government could get a lot greedier than it currently is on one hand, and the international banking system is too dependent on both American financial services and US government debt on the other hand. Perhaps, shifting a considerable part of savings into cryptocurrencies with some track record of safety and resilience (Bitcoin being the most conservative choice) might be worth considering. Dubai is amazingly crypto-friendly, I was able to live there for many months without a bank account, entirely on crypto: both long term rent or outright purchase of housing and vehicles is doable directly in crypto, and there is a very liquid and convenient market for exchanging cryptocurrencies into cash or online purchase certificates for anything from groceries to clothing, home decor and entertainment. There is a large class of wealthy un-banked people living there (upper middle-class Russians) providing the necessary economies of scale for businesses to serve them.
Full disclosure: We have moved to Dubai mostly for tax reasons, spending the hottest months in Europe (legally) as tourists. In practice, we kept our home in Hungary, just don't spend most of the year here anymore. But TBH, right now I am happy not to be in Dubai, not only because of the scorching heat.
Out of curiosity - can you share about Dubai neighborhoods and why it is happy to not be there right now? Google didn't turn up anything relevant.
Possibly its closeness to other countries which are having a difficult time and known to throw temper tantrums.
Actually I'm pretty well convinced the country is already long gone to hell and a wrecking ball in D.C., President Trump, may well be the only way to save it and civilization as well. Not that I think (Though I do hope.) such will happen.
Right wing-populist takeover of the political system? I don't see chance of such happening but as I see the present situation not as right versus left but right against wrong I don't see a downside to such.
A left-wing, possibly progressive,dystopia; my opinion we've been there, doing that,having that for decades.
National debt? Why yes I'm old enough to remember nickle Cokes, eleven cent a gallon gasoline, fifteen cent pulp mags, and forty cents a dozen eggs. The dozen hasn't gotten any bigger, the Coke bottle has gotten smaller but the prices sure have risen. Government, on the other hand, has gotten a lot bigger and far more expensive, while what I see as valid government services; arbitrating between you and me while protecting us from them seem almost nonexistent.
Our one party system, democrats and loyal RINOs, is a massive juggernaut, their wheels greased by media and academia, is almost impossible to stop.
"I don’t know what happens at that point and would prefer to observe the process from a safe distance." Me, I'm sitting up here atop the world, Russia to the west, socialist Canada to the east but Alaska's population being around one person per square mile, me and mine have a bit of wiggle room no matter what.
& why yes, I am sure we can agree to disagree. Grin.
"The less obvious dystopia is a left-wing, possibly progressive, one." This seems at least as obvious to me (although delayed while the Dems lack the presidency). BTW, recent and excellent projections of nightmarish "progressive" dystopias appear in Cancelled: The Shape of Things to Come, Danny King, and Mania, Lionel Shriver (both Prometheus Award finalists for this year).
fast forward 20 years and you have the exact situation of Brazil
Well, the fact that no one since Romney has been willing to openly name the source of most of the debt, namely entitlements, is not a promising sign in addressing it.
The debt bomb and especially its consequences were also discussed by Ray Dalio and with (to me) surprisingly similar implications. Are you aware of his writing? I assume no, and if so, both of you coming to similar conclusions make them even more scary.
What is your opinion about selling federal assets to pay down the national debt? More than 85% of the land in my state (Nevada) is federally owned.
My guess is that most of the federal land is not very valuable, that selling all of it would not reduce the debt by much, but I could easily be wrong.
A February 5, 2013 Time magazine article by Christopher Matthews entitled “The Federal Government's $128 Trillion Stockpile: The Answer to Our Debt Problems?” states that, according to an Institute for Energy Research (IER) report, the federal government owns over 900,000 real assets, mineral rights, underutilized buildings, and oil and gas resources worth a total of $128 trillion in 2013. The article states that, since the IER is a think tank that advocates energy deregulation, it may have overestimated the value of the assets, but even if the total value is half the estimate, it greatly exceeds the national debt. Besides, the government owns gold bullion and student loan debt estimated to total more than $1 trillion.
I'll add that, if these assets were sold, they'd be put to productive use in the private sector. Consequently, the taxpayers would save the costs of administering them and would be better able to afford what government remains.
Do you have a better proposal to deal with the national debt?
AI disaster on the scale of a country of a continent seems possible, and given the US lead in AI, if it happens anywhere, it seems most likely to happen in the US. That is different from worldwide disaster, not least because a disaster that really takes down the US seems likely to prevent or at least slow any wider scale disaster. That ought to include both humans intentionally using AI to do something that would have otherwise been impossible, and accidents where no human intended the behavior that led to the disaster.
China seems at least a potential source of massive problems. I don't think they are going to war, but it is something they have prepared for in various asymmetric ways - understandable given their history, and the sheer military and economic power of the US. And, short of war, there is the possibility they come up with something far more effective than their actions so far and decide the risks are worth it.
The demographic bomb could really snowball. Some of that is variance from our poor understanding of fertility, and some is the effects we do know about where current and recent fertility levels impact fertility levels. More likely is a variant where massive snowball effect hits only load bearing sub populations - which seems to somewhat already be happening. But reactions to that going extreme could also be bad.
This is perhaps too adjacent to some of your conjectures, but civil war seems to have a variety of possible modes. Those are pretty much all really bad.
The US used to spawn new religions repeatedly, some of them extremely fast spreading. That has largely stopped - but therefore, the metaphorical antibodies to such things have largely ceased. Moreover, some of the ways Christianity, organized Christianity, media, and the intellectual sphere might have intentionally worked against such a thing have vastly reduced power now. In that environment, something rather inimical might do quite a lot of damage.
You don't count Woke as a recent new religion?
There are ways in which it counts, and it did seem to spread rather quickly and widely. At the very least, it should be evidence that a new religion could spread quickly. Woke has not been without its downsides, but it has not, I think, reached the level of downfall for the country that you were talking about. A successor, or some religion seemingly out of left field, could be worse.
You neglected the way things will ACTUALLY play out in the former republic:
***DEFAULT ON THE NATIONAL DEBT***.
But possibly because Murray Rothbard responsibly detailed it, here...
https://chroniclesmagazine.org/view/repudiating-the-debt/
...you may have ignored it out of a personal animus against him.
It is hard to predict the future based on people and politics. But even I can understand the implictions of your third scenario. I live on a private yacht and have done so for decades. Sounds grand eh? Maybe not so much in practice. But it has given me mobility and independence. Let me know if you want a skipper :-)
You still need to buy supplies, and that requires money, maybe gold. If you become known for carrying cash or gold, I wouldn't want to be on that yacht.
In these interesting times, I’m definitely glad that I’m not a US citizen; that I live an ocean away from the USA; and that I have no reason to visit the USA in the foreseeable future. It has been a great country, but it now seems a troubled country, and one that no longer welcomes visitors. I feel much safer here in Spain—a country with its own political problems, but they seem less threatening.
Yeah, you're doing great there, where they can't even keep the electricity on any more...
We had a power cut one day. The electricity has kept coming since then with no further interruption.
Good luck with that.
Thanks. I have a correspondent in Connecticut who has also suffered from power cuts in the past. In any case, I’m happy to be living in Spain; if you’re happy wherever you are, that’s fine, we’re both happy.